Water FractalTier 2
at I SCRUBBED OUT OF STEEL
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 53.1% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 51.6% | +0.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.8% | +2.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 10.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 7.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +2.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Wind Allies | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +2.8 |
| Water Kongming | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nefarious Timepiece | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |